CenTime: Event-conditional modelling of censoring in survival analysis

Survival analysis is a valuable tool for estimating the time until specific events, such as death or cancer recurrence, based on baseline observations. This is particularly useful in healthcare to prognostically predict clinically important events based on patient data. However, existing approaches often have limitations; some focus only on ranking patients by survivability, neglecting to estimate the actual event time, while others treat the problem as a classification task, ignoring the inherent time-ordered structure of the events. Additionally, the effective utilisation of censored samples−data points where the event time is unknown− is essential for enhancing the model's predictive accuracy. In this paper, we introduce CenTime, a novel approach to survival analysis that directly estimates the time to event. Our method features an innovative event-conditional censoring mechanism that performs robustly even when uncensored data is scarce. We demonstrate that our approach forms a consistent estimator for the event model parameters, even in the absence of uncensored data. Furthermore, CenTime is easily integrated with deep learning models with no restrictions on batch size or the number of uncensored samples. We compare our approach to standard survival analysis methods, including the Cox proportional-hazard model and DeepHit. Our results indicate that CenTime offers state-of-the-art performance in predicting time-to-death while maintaining comparable ranking performance. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/ahmedhshahin/CenTime

Socioeconomic status is associated with symptom severity and sickness absence in people with infectious intestinal disease in the UK

BACKGROUND: The burden of infectious intestinal disease (IID) in the UK is substantial. Negative consequences including sickness absence are common, but little is known about the social patterning of these outcomes, or the extent to which they relate to disease severity. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using IID cases identified from a large population-based survey, to explore the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and symptom severity and sickness absence; and to assess the role of symptom severity on the relationship between SES and absence. Regression modelling was used to investigate these associations, whilst controlling for potential confounders such as age, sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: Among 1164 cases, those of lower SES versus high had twice the odds of experiencing severe symptoms (OR 2.2, 95%CI;1.66-2.87). Lower SES was associated with higher odds of sickness absence (OR 1.8, 95%CI;1.26-2.69), however this association was attenuated after adjusting for symptom severity (OR 1.4, 95%CI;0.92-2.07). CONCLUSIONS: In a large sample of IID cases, those of low SES versus high were more likely to report severe symptoms, and sickness absence; with greater severity largely explaining the higher absence. Public health interventions are needed to address the unequal consequences of IID identified

Socioeconomic status and infectious intestinal disease in the community: a longitudinal study (IID2 study).

Infectious intestinal diseases (IID) are common, affecting around 25% of people in UK each year at an estimated annual cost to the economy, individuals and the NHS of £1.5 billion. While there is evidence of higher IID hospital admissions in more disadvantaged groups, the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of IID remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the relationship between SES and IID in a large community cohort.Longitudinal analysis of a prospective community cohort in the UK following 6836 participants of all ages was undertaken. Hazard ratios for IID by SES were estimated using Cox proportional hazard, adjusting for follow-up time and potential confounding factors.In the fully adjusted analysis, hazard ratio of IID was significantly lower among routine/manual occupations compared with managerial/professional occupations (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61-0.90).In this large community cohort, lower SES was associated with lower IID risk. This may be partially explained by the low response rate which varied by SES. However, it may be related to differences in exposure or recognition of IID symptoms by SES. Higher hospital admissions associated with lower SES observed in some studies could relate to more severe consequences, rather than increased infection risk

Bioavailability of iodine in the UK-Peak District environment and its human bioaccessibility: an assessment of the causes of historical goitre in this area

Iodine is an essential micronutrient for human health. Its deficiency causes a number of functional and developmental abnormalities such as goitre. The limestone region of Derbyshire, UK was goitre-endemic until it declined from the 1930s and the reason for this has escaped a conclusive explanation. The present study investigates the cause(s) of goitre in the UK-Peak District area through an assessment of iodine in terms of its environmental mobility, bioavailability, uptake into the food chain and human bioaccessibility. The goitre-endemic limestone area is compared with the background millstone grit area of the UK-Peak District. The findings of this study show that ‘total’ environmental iodine is not linked to goitre in the limestone area, but the governing factors include iodine mobility, bioavailability and bioaccessibility. Compared with the millstone grit area, higher soil pH and calcium content of the limestone area restrict iodine mobility in this area, also soil organic carbon in the limestone area is influential in binding the iodine to the soil. Higher calcium content in the limestone area is an important factor in terms of strongly fixing the iodine to the soil. Higher iodine bioaccessibility in the millstone grit than the limestone area suggests that its oral bioaccessibility is restricted in the limestone area. Iodine taken up by plant roots is transported freely into the aerial plant parts in the millstone grit area unlike the limestone area, thus providing higher iodine into the human food chain in the millstone grit area through grazing animals unlike the goitre-prevalent limestone area

Atomic transition frequencies, isotope shifts, and sensitivity to variation of the fine structure constant for studies of quasar absorption spectra

Theories unifying gravity with other interactions suggest spatial and temporal variation of fundamental "constants" in the Universe. A change in the fine structure constant, alpha, could be detected via shifts in the frequencies of atomic transitions in quasar absorption systems. Recent studies using 140 absorption systems from the Keck telescope and 153 from the Very Large Telescope, suggest that alpha varies spatially. That is, in one direction on the sky alpha seems to have been smaller at the time of absorption, while in the opposite direction it seems to have been larger. To continue this study we need accurate laboratory measurements of atomic transition frequencies. The aim of this paper is to provide a compilation of transitions of importance to the search for alpha variation. They are E1 transitions to the ground state in several different atoms and ions, with wavelengths ranging from around 900 - 6000 A, and require an accuracy of better than 10^{-4} A. We discuss isotope shift measurements that are needed in order to resolve systematic effects in the study. The coefficients of sensitivity to alpha-variation (q) are also presented.Comment: Includes updated version of the "alpha line" lis

Exploring the equity of GP practice prescribing rates for selected coronary heart disease drugs: a multiple regression analysis with proxies of healthcare need

Background There is a small, but growing body of literature highlighting inequities in GP practice prescribing rates for many drug therapies. The aim of this paper is to further explore the equity of prescribing for five major CHD drug groups and to explain the amount of variation in GP practice prescribing rates that can be explained by a range of healthcare needs indicators (HCNIs). Methods The study involved a cross-sectional secondary analysis in four primary care trusts (PCTs 1–4) in the North West of England, including 132 GP practices. Prescribing rates (average daily quantities per registered patient aged over 35 years) and HCNIs were developed for all GP practices. Analysis was undertaken using multiple linear regression. Results Between 22–25% of the variation in prescribing rates for statins, beta-blockers and bendrofluazide was explained in the multiple regression models. Slightly more variation was explained for ACE inhibitors (31.6%) and considerably more for aspirin (51.2%). Prescribing rates were positively associated with CHD hospital diagnoses and procedures for all drug groups other than ACE inhibitors. The proportion of patients aged 55–74 years was positively related to all prescribing rates other than aspirin, where they were positively related to the proportion of patients aged >75 years. However, prescribing rates for statins and ACE inhibitors were negatively associated with the proportion of patients aged >75 years in addition to the proportion of patients from minority ethnic groups. Prescribing rates for aspirin, bendrofluazide and all CHD drugs combined were negatively associated with deprivation. Conclusion Although around 25–50% of the variation in prescribing rates was explained by HCNIs, this varied markedly between PCTs and drug groups. Prescribing rates were generally characterised by both positive and negative associations with HCNIs, suggesting possible inequities in prescribing rates on the basis of ethnicity, deprivation and the proportion of patients aged over 75 years (for statins and ACE inhibitors, but not for aspirin)

The realizability of operations on homotopy groups concentrated in two degrees

The homotopy groups of a space are endowed with homotopy operations which define the \Pi-algebra of the space. An Eilenberg-MacLane space is the realization of a \Pi-algebra concentrated in one degree. In this paper, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the realizability of a \Pi-algebra concentrated in two degrees. We then specialize to the stable case, and list infinite families of such \Pi-algebras that are not realizable.Comment: Version 2: Some minor corrections. A few changes to the exposition. To appear in the Journal of Homotopy and Related Structure

Effect of four plant species on soil 15N-access and herbage yield in temporary agricultural grasslands

Positive plant diversity-productivity relationships have been reported for experimental semi-natural grasslands (Cardinale et al. 2006; Hector et al. 1999; Tilman et al. 1996) as well as temporary agricultural grasslands (Frankow-Lindberg et al. 2009; Kirwan et al. 2007; Nyfeler et al. 2009; Picasso et al. 2008). Generally, these relationships are explained, on the one hand, by niche differentiation and facilitation (Hector et al. 2002; Tilman et al. 2002) and, on the other hand, by greater probability of including a highly productive plant species in high diversity plots (Huston 1997). Both explanations accept that diversity is significant because species differ in characteristics, such as root architecture, nutrient acquisition and water use efficiency, to name a few, resulting in composition and diversity being important for improved productivity and resource use (Naeem et al. 1994; Tilman et al. 2002). Plant diversity is generally low in temporary agricultural grasslands grown for ruminant fodder production. Grass in pure stands is common, but requires high nitrogen (N) inputs. In terms of N input, two-species grass-legume mixtures are more sustainable than grass in pure stands and consequently dominate low N input grasslands (Crews and Peoples 2004; Nyfeler et al. 2009; Nyfeler et al. 2011). In temperate grasslands, N is often the limiting factor for productivity (Whitehead 1995). Plant available soil N is generally concentrated in the upper soil layers, but may leach to deeper layers, especially in grasslands that include legumes (Scherer-Lorenzen et al. 2003) and under conditions with surplus precipitation (Thorup-Kristensen 2006). To improve soil N use efficiency in temporary grasslands, we propose the addition of deep-rooting plant species to a mixture of perennial ryegrass and white clover, which are the most widespread forage plant species in temporary grasslands in a temperate climate (Moore 2003). Perennial ryegrass and white clover possess relatively shallow root systems (Kutschera and Lichtenegger 1982; Kutschera and Lichtenegger 1992) with effective rooting depths of <0.7 m on a silt loamy site (Pollock and Mead 2008). Grassland species, such as lucerne and chicory, grow their tap-roots into deep soil layers and exploit soil nutrients and water in soil layers that the commonly grown shallow-rooting grassland species cannot reach (Braun et al. 2010; Skinner 2008). Chicory grown as a catch crop after barley reduced the inorganic soil N down to 2.5 m depth during the growing season, while perennial ryegrass affected the inorganic soil N only down to 1 m depth (Thorup-Kristensen 2006). Further, on a Wakanui silt loam in New Zealand chicory extracted water down to 1.9 m and lucerne down to 2.3 m soil depth, which resulted in greater herbage yields compared with a perennial ryegrass-white clover mixture, especially for dryland plots (Brown et al. 2005). There is little information on both the ability of deep- and shallow-rooting grassland species to access soil N from different vertical soil layers and the relation of soil N-access and herbage yield in temporary agricultural grasslands. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to test the hypotheses 1) that a mixture comprising both shallow- and deep-rooting plant species has greater herbage yields than a shallow-rooting binary mixture and pure stands, 2) that deep-rooting plant species (chicory and lucerne) are superior in accessing soil N from 1.2 m soil depth compared with shallow-rooting plant species, 3) that shallow-rooting plant species (perennial ryegrass and white clover) are superior in accessing soil N from 0.4 m soil depth compared with deep-rooting plant species, 4) that a mixture of deep- and shallow-rooting plant species has greater access to soil N from three soil layers compared with a shallow-rooting two-species mixture and that 5) the leguminous grassland plants, lucerne and white clover, have a strong impact on grassland N acquisition, because of their ability to derive N from the soil and the atmosphere

Solid variant of aneurysmal bone cyst of the thoracic spine: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>The solid variant of aneurysmal bone cyst is rare, and only 13 cases involving the spine have been reported to date, including seven in the thoracic vertebrae. The diagnosis is difficult to secure radiographically before biopsy or surgery.</p> <p>Case report</p> <p>An 18-year-old Hispanic man presented to our facility with a one-year history of left chest pain without any significant neurological deficits. An MRI scan demonstrated a 6 cm diameter enhancing multi-cystic mass centered at the T6 vertebral body with involvement of the left proximal sixth rib and extension into the pleural cavity; the spinal cord was severely compressed with evidence of abnormal T2 signal changes. Our patient was taken to the operating room for a total spondylectomy of T6 with resection of the left sixth rib from a single-stage posterior-only approach. The vertebral column was reconstructed in a 360° manner with an expandable titanium cage and pedicle screw fixation. Histologically, the resected specimen showed predominant solid fibroblastic proliferation, with minor foci of reactive osteoid formation, an area of osteoclastic-like giant cells, and cyst-like areas filled with erythrocytes and focal hemorrhage, consistent with a predominantly solid variant of aneurysmal bone cyst. At 16 months after surgery, our patient remains neurologically intact with resolution of his chest and back pain.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Because of its rarity, location, and radical treatment approach, we considered this case worthy of reporting. The solid variant of aneurysmal bone cyst is difficult to diagnose radiologically before biopsy or surgery, and we hope to remind other physicians that it should be included in the differential diagnosis of any lytic expansile destructive lesion of the spine.</p

Nitrogen and sulphur management: challenges for organic sources in temperate agricultural systems

A current global trend towards intensification or specialization of agricultural enterprises has been accompanied by increasing public awareness of associated environmental consequences. Air and water pollution from losses of nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S), are a major concern. Governments have initiated extensive regulatory frameworks, including various land use policies, in an attempt to control or reduce the losses. This paper presents an overview of critical input and loss processes affecting N and S for temperate climates, and provides some background to the discussion in subsequent papers evaluating specific farming systems. Management effects on potential gaseous and leaching losses, the lack of synchrony between supply of nutrients and plant demand, and options for optimizing the efficiency of N and S use are reviewed. Integration of inorganic and organic fertilizer inputs and the equitable re-distribution of nutrients from manure are discussed. The paper concludes by highlighting a need for innovative research that is also targeted to practical approaches for reducing N and S losses, and improving the overall synchrony between supply and demand